Running the climate experiment.

Please disregard the daily renewable energy momentum hype. It gives you a false sense of security and hope. You need to prepare for the impacts of climate change.

Just today the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change released their 2023 report. To be on track to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees the world needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 45% below 2010 levels. The report forecasts that the 2030 levels will be 9% higher than 2010 levels, and that assumes everyone does what they have promised to do. I highly unlikely scenario. Forget 1.5 degrees. We will be lucky if we can hold it to 2 degrees, with some forecasts above 3 degrees.

Let’s consider this from a normal business planning horizon of 1 to 5 years. Bottom line, things will only get worse for at least the next 5 years. What will this mean for your business?

  1. Increase in extreme weather events.
  2. More power outages due to weather, increased load and mismatch between load and
    renewable generation.
  3. Higher energy costs.
  4. Higher energy price volatility.
  5. Higher inflation due to weather pressure on agriculture.
  6. Higher inflation due to increased energy costs.
  7. Increase in geopolitical tensions due to climate migration and loss of habitat.
  8. Many more.

What are the actions we should be considering?
Backup power. You need to make your operations resilient to power outages.
Reconfigure supply chains. Transportation will be more expensive and unreliable.
Consider resource substitutions and distributions. An extreme weather event can knock out your supply.
Invest in energy efficiency. The less you are dependent the more you are resilient.
Consider relocation to areas less likely to be impacted by climate and extreme weather. Invest in automation. Worker productivity falls with increased temperatures.

I am sorry to say it is no longer actions to avoid the worst of climate change, rather it is prepare and adapt to the worst of climate change.