A change in administration will not solve the grid’s problems.
The reasons fall into two categories.
First, the incompatibility of time-lines and political lifetimes. Energy projects, especially large infrastructure ones, take a very long time to complete. They take longer than the average administrative lifetime. For example, a new transmission line takes approximately 15 years, nuclear 10 and a natural gas plant 5. The constant change in administrations limits any momentum in these projects because of uncertainty and increased risk. The constant shifting of priorities and focus results in less getting accomplished in total, while the demand continues to increase, weather continues to get worse and reliability continues to decline. Since there is no consistency of vision in the political administration of a length comparable to project timelines, projects simply won’t get done. In a related aspect, the highly charged political environment fosters increased litigation which adds to the timeline problem. Things will continue to get worse and drive more off-grid self generation and behind the meter focus.
Secondly are the expected market dynamics. Continuing from the last sentence of the above paragraph, a more business, regulatory and permitting friendly environment will enhance BTM investment by making it cheaper and faster. From a market perspective. The price elasticity of energy and lack of discipline in the oil and gas sector, will cause very interesting dynamics. The focus on drill baby drill and pushing our energy production, will likely result in a collapse of natural gas prices, making self-generation more attractive. This will shift the cost of energy from variable to fixed, as infrastructure, capacity and demand charges will dominate the bill. As such, the incentive for BTM generation will go up.
In summary, the change in administration will increase the market price volatility and businesses prefer certainty and predictability. The volatility will drive them to look for more “stable” solutions, such as BTM generation. If businesses can’t get the power they need (consider data centers) they will find alternative routes to get it. Global competition, first mover advantage and volatility are more important factors than short lived political dynasties.
This is not a time to take a wait and see approach. You need to plan for continued or increased energy price volatility, increases in extreme weather and its related power outages and declining power capacity margins.