Missed the opportunity to boil the frog.
For those of you who never heard “boil the frog”, it means: “If a frog is placed in boiling water, it will jump out, but if it is placed in cold water that is slowly heated, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death.” Said a different way; if you take your time and the changes are small and incremental, you can achieve much without pain and discomfort.
I bring this up because it is a great reflection on the energy transition. We have known about climate change for decades and took no action and implemented no plan. In 1985 Carl Sagan spoke before Congress and stated the biggest challenge and problem facing mankind is climate change.
That was 40 years ago. By waiting, the problem gets harder and more importantly it gets increasingly painful. So much so, that achieving the zero carbon goals will require a significant reduction in everyone’s standard of living.
This could have been foreseen, and had we boiled the frog of climate change, we would not be looking at such a bleak future. I just read an article, “The Green Road to Serfdom“, that clearly reports on the predictable resistance of people to economic pain. Quoting the subtitle: “Voters will rebel against ‘net zero’ when the costs hit”. There have been numerous reports and studies that show people support the energy transition as long as it doesn’t cost them more than a dollar per month. Ok, face it, we’re not going to get there.
Through our inaction, we have decided to run the climate change experiment. Strap in, it’s going to be a rough ride.