A New Model for EV Ownership: (Read Time: 2 minutes) Our analysis has shown that for Exergy’s typical “Always On” customers, the value of the battery for peak shaving, demand response and resiliency is worth more to the employer than the average lease paid by the employee.

Carbon Tariffs: (Read Time: 2 minutes) The United States may never be able to pass a carbon tax, but I believe there is a very real possibility that we will see carbon tariffs imposed by those countries leading the climate change fight.

Carbon Tariffs Part 2: (Read Time: 2 minutes) Things are often much more complex than soundbites lead us to believe. This fact was front and center this morning when I read the New York Times article on natural gas flaring.

Predictive Model for Power Outages: (Read Time: 20 minutes) In this research paper, the aim is to unveil the novel use of data analytics in predicting power-outage-event duration and customer calls. As the objective in this research is to advance smart-grid reliability, this paper explores ways to create a predictive model for power outages.

Improving Power Grid Resilience Through Predictive Outage Estimation: (Read Time: 25 minutes) In this paper, in an attempt to improve power grid resilience, a machine learning model is proposed to predictively estimate the component states in response to extreme events. The proposed model is based on a multi-dimensional Support Vector Machine (SVM) considering the associated resilience index, i.e., the infrastructure quality level and the time duration that each component can withstand the event, as well as predicted path and intensity of the upcoming extreme event. The outcome of the proposed model is the classified component state data to two categories of outage and operational, which can be further used to schedule system resources in a predictive manner with the objective of maximizing its resilience. The proposed model is validated using k-fold cross-validation and model benchmarking techniques. The performance of the model is tested through numerical simulations and based on a well defined and commonly-used performance measure.

Predicting Storm Outages Through New Representations of Weather and Vegetation: (Read Time: 80 minutes) This paper introduces new developments in an outage prediction model (OPM) for an electric distribution network in the Northeastern United States and assesses their  significance to the OPM performance. The OPM uses regression tree models fed by numerical weather prediction outputs, spatially distributed information on soil, vegetation, electric utility assets, and historical power outage data to forecast the number and spatial distribution of outages across the power distribution grid. New modules introduced hereby consist in 1) a storm classifier based on weather variables; 2) a multimodel optimization of regression tree output; and 3) a post-processing routine for more accurately describing tree-leaf conditions. Model implementations are tested through leave-one-storm-out cross-validations performed on 120 storms of varying intensity and characteristics. The results show that the median absolute percentage error of the new OPM version decreased from 130% to 59% for outage predictions at the service territory level, and the OPM skills for operational forecasts are consistent with the skills based on historical storm analyses.

Reducing Carbon Footprints with Resilient Green Energy: (Read time: 5 minutes) Exergy Energy can reduce your organization’s carbon footprint by 91.5% immediately, and we have a plan to deliver a 100% reduction in the near term with no investment or changes to equipment.

Green Fraud and Green Lies: (Read time: 2 minutes) My ethical world view bubble was burst when I learned that some utilities are selling “100% Green” but don’t actual deliver or produce green energy. Here is how this scam works.

McKinsey Hydrogen Future: (Read Time: 4.5 hours) Hydrogen has a central role in helping the world reach net-zero emissions by 2050 and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Complementing other decarbonization technologies like renewable power, biofuels, or energy efficiency improvements, clean hydrogen (both renewable and low carbon) offers the only long-term, scalable, and cost-effective option for deep decarbonization in sectors such as steel, maritime, aviation, and ammonia. From now through 2050, hydrogen can avoid 80 gigatons (GT) of cumulative CO2 emissions. With annual abatement potential of 7 GT in 2050, hydrogen can contribute 20% of the total abatement needed in 2050. This requires the use of 660 million metric tons (MT) of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen in 2050, equivalent to 22% of global final energy demand.

The Future of Natural Gas: (Reading Time: 15 Hours) Natural gas is finding its place at the heart of the energy discussion. The recent emergence of substantial new supplies of natural gas in the U.S., primarily as a result of the remarkable speed and scale of shale gas development, has heightened awareness of natural gas as a key
component of indigenous energy supply and has lowered prices well below recent expectations. This study seeks to inform discussion about the future of natural gas, particularly in a carbon constrained economy.

Interdependence of the Electricity Generation System and the Natural Gas System and Implications for Energy Security: (MIT NG Reliability Report; Read time: 2 hours) Concern about energy security on domestic Department of Defense installations has led to the possibility of using natural gas-fired electricity generators to provide power in the event of electric grid failures. As natural gas is an increasingly base-load fuel for electricity generation in the United States, the electricity generation system has become increasingly dependent on the operation of the natural gas system. However, as the natural gas system is also partly  dependent on electricity for its ability to deliver natural gas from the well-head to the consumer, the question arises of whether, in the event of an electric grid failure, the natural gas would continue to flow.

Application of a Resilience Framework to Military Installations: (Reading Time: 2 hours) Critical mission operations on domestic military installations for the Department of Defense (DoD) use backup sources of power to protect against the failure of the domestic electric utility grid. This report examines the life cycle costs and availability and reliability of the current backup power solutions at military installations and compares them to alternatives for future deployments to reduce life cycle costs or to increase the availability of energy to critical mission operations.

Earth’s Future – 2021 – Hill – The Effects of Climate Change on Interregional Electricity Market Dynamics on the U S West: (Read Time: 75 Minutes) The United States West Coast power system is strongly influenced by variability and extremes in air temperatures (which drive electricity demand) and streamflows (which control hydropower availability). As hydroclimate changes across the West Coast, a combination of forces may work in tandem to make its bulk power system more vulnerable to physical reliability issues and market price shocks. In particular, a warmer climate is expected to increase summer cooling (electricity) demands and shift the average timing of peak streamflow (hydropower production) away from summer to the spring and winter, depriving power systems of hydropower when it is needed the most.

Earth s Future – 2022 – Wessel – Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U S West Coast Grid’s Exposure to (Read Time: 75 minutes) In this study we model how increased adoption of wind power, solar power, batteries and electric vehicles could alter the U.S. West Coast grid’s exposure to weather uncertainty. Our results show that as the mix of technologies used on the grid changes from 2020 to 2050, it will cause a “re-ranking” of weather years (with “good” years capable of becoming “bad” and vice versa).

Building a Resilient Energy Future: How the gas system contributes to US energy system resilience (Read Time: 120 minutes) A resilient energy system is essential to the operation of nearly every critical function and sector of the US economy as well as the communities that depend upon its services. Disruptions to the US energy system create widespread economic and social impacts, including losses in productivity, health and safety issues, and—in the most extreme cases—loss of life. As utilities, system operators, regulators, and policymakers deliberate the design and structure of the future energy infrastructure, they must consider the resilience of the entire energy system. As the transformation of the energy system accelerates, it is important for stakeholders to understand the increasing interdependence of gas and electric systems and their role in creating a more resilient future.

From Risk To Return: Investing in a clean energy economy. (Read Time: 100 minutes).  Seriously addressing climate change requires reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80 percent by 2050 in the U.S. and across all major economies. We find that this goal is technically and economically achievable using commercial or near-commercial technology. Most important, we find that meeting the goal does not require an energy miracle or unprecedented spending. The transition to a cleaner energy economy rests on three pillars: moving from fossil fuels to electricity wherever possible, generating electricity with low or zero carbon emissions, and using energy much more efficiently.

Industrial Demand Response Optimization. (Read Time: 5 minutes). A key aspect of Exergy’s solution is the use of demand response to lower overall energy spend. Industrial demand response is much trickier than most DR advocates admit. As a process becomes more streamlined, efficient and optimized, the ability to shed loads will tend towards zero. This is because in an optimized system, everything is essential and electric loads should already represent the optimized process flow.

Natural Gas vs Diesel Generation. (Read Time: 8 minutes). The Department of Defense, in order to make military bases as reliable and resilient as possible, commissioned the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to do an in-depth study of natural gas versus diesel generation. The study concluded that natural gas is substantially more reliable than diesel across all dimensions from fuel delivery to generator uptime. These conclusions were reinforced by a California study looking into the aftermath of an earthquake.

Peak load Prediction White Paper. (Read Time: 12 minutes). This whitepaper develops forecasting models using statistical and machine learning techniques (artificial neural network) to predict the electric load requirements, and develops classification models to classify peak energy usage days and usual days.

Diesel Corrosion Control Feb 2022.(Read Time: 15 minutes). A short, 27-slide presentation by Octane Systems Inc. on how to prevent corrosion in diesel backup generators.

We don’t know how to decarbonize the grid. (Read Time 5 minutes). While all of us are looking forward to its decarbonization, I for one, am very concerned we don’t have a plan. The dirty little secret is; nobody has figured it out how to do it. So why all the hype about batteries, smart grids, microgrids, blockchain, and grid AI?

Power Resilience Guide for Water & Wastewater Utilities. (Read Time: 25 minutes).  This guide includes information from water industry professionals on how to increase power resilience at drinking water and wastewater utilities. The purpose of this guide is to promote coordination and communication between water sector utilities and their electric and gas utilities; provide information on how to build power resilience using generators, fuel supply planning, on-site power, microgrids and other methods; highlight case studies from water utilities that have successfully implemented power resilience measures; and identify planning considerations and resources for both short (e.g., 2-3 days) and long (e.g., several weeks) duration power outages.

The Exergy Model – Stochastic Analysis (Read Time: 8 minutes).  Exergy’s business model requires in-front-of-the-meter renewable generation to match customer’s load profile. Extensive studies prove that a well-balanced combination of solar and wind can match electricity users’ demand curve seamlessly. However, due to the intermittency of renewable generation as well as electricity usage, a short-term mismatch of generation and load may occur. Exergy conducted a simulation-based study using agent-based modeling methodology and concluded that such short-term variability is not only manageable, but also can be diversified.